# Used Car Prices



## Thejarrod

I feel for anyone who NEEDS to buy a new (used) car right now. Its incredible how prices have moved up since early spring of 2020. I'm in the market for a used pickup, but its not urgent. i'll just continue to use my subaru like a pickup until things calm down. 
what do we think about where used car prices will go in the next few months?
I found this tool from Car Gurus. Not sure how objective this data is, but it feels like its directionally accurate.

https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/price-trends/


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## Amoo316

Until the chip shortage settles itself down and new car lots aren't forced to overpay for used cars to have decent inventory on their lots, I'm afraid this trend looks to continue for a while.


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## 01Bullitt

I am in the market for a used car as well and have been researching when they think the shortage will end or at least ease up. According to this article Ford is estimating it could last until 2024. They also mention an all electric Ford vehicle can have up to 3,000 chips while a gasoline Ford Focus has around 300. They also say that plastics and steel are in short supply.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/06/vw-ford-daimler-fear-chip-shortage-could-persist-for-some-time.html


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## Phids

Thejarrod said:


> I feel for anyone who NEEDS to buy a new (used) car right now. Its incredible how prices have moved up since early spring of 2020. I'm in the market for a used pickup, but its not urgent. i'll just continue to use my subaru like a pickup until things calm down.


I've been in the market for a used vehicle for the past year as well. There's a neat tool I found which provides the depreciation value for different makes and models. In the example below, you can see that a Jeep Cherokee depreciates by 30% after the first year, but only about 10% more over the next two years. Might be helpful for you to find the best value based on the year of the vehicle you want.

https://caredge.com/jeep/cherokee/depreciation?y=0&p=35789&o=3&m=12000


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## BobLovesGrass

The gorilla hiding in the shadows here is China's intent to take back Taiwan............
That stands to make things worse if they act.
They wont cut us off permanently but will make it hurt so we know who is in charge.


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## bosox_5

BobLovesGrass said:


> The gorilla hiding in the shadows here is China's intent to take back Taiwan............
> That stands to make things worse if they act.
> They wont cut us off permanently but will make it hurt so we know who is in charge.


If they do that, then we have much larger issues than used car prices.


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## Phids

BobLovesGrass said:


> The gorilla hiding in the shadows here is China's intent to take back Taiwan............
> That stands to make things worse if they act.
> They wont cut us off permanently but will make it hurt so we know who is in charge.


I realize that is something that would significantly affect economic activity across all industries, but do you really think that's influencing car prices right now? Because the threat has been there for decades. I realize that yes, we're closer to it being realized now more than ever before, but it could still be years away before it finally happens.

Seems like car prices now are more the result of supply chain disruptions with the pandemic and funky labor shortages.


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## BobLovesGrass

My point wasn't it is a driving factor today, but that I think it prudent to do your own calculations on how big an issue it may be tomorrow or in a year or two.
That would all play into what I buy and in the current climate if I am willing to overpay.......


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## FATC1TY

Car pricing will be like this for another 12 months.

Another thing missed, is people will start to be forced back into the office, with more commuting and more business travel. Demand is not going away.


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## Thick n Dense

Guys- wake up there is no shortage.

This is an attack on our economy.

Chips are made of silicon which is sand.
Explain to me how we have a shortage of that ?

We buy SAND to level our lawns!!!! Theres enough sand for us to do that isnt there ?

And how come the US hasnt taken things into our own hands to produce chips while generating jobs.

Yup... look around, things not just IC's will get worse before it gets better.

US dollar is worth the least it has been in our liftime with the printing of 6 trillion in one year alone which is more than has ever been printed collectively since we went off the gold standard.

This is why things cost more, the dollar is worth lesss... buckle up.

By the time youre able to get your electric f150 it will cost 100k$ for the base model.


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## FATC1TY

Thick n Dense said:


> Guys- wake up there is no shortage.
> 
> This is an attack on our economy.
> 
> Chips are made of silicon which is sand.
> Explain to me how we have a shortage of that ?
> 
> We buy SAND to level our lawns!!!! Theres enough sand for us to do that isnt there ?
> 
> And how come the US hasnt taken things into our own hands to produce chips while generating jobs.
> 
> Yup... look around, things not just IC's will get worse before it gets better.
> 
> US dollar is worth the least it has been in our liftime with the printing of 6 trillion in one year alone which is more than has ever been printed collectively since we went off the gold standard.
> 
> This is why things cost more, the dollar is worth lesss... buckle up.
> 
> By the time youre able to get your electric f150 it will cost 100k$ for the base model.


There is a shortage. Shortage of material and people. We don't level our lawns with people, despite it being a lot of labor.

Also- go check out the Ford lightning pro. 42k. All electric.


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## rotolow

Thick n Dense said:


> Guys- wake up there is no shortage.
> 
> This is an attack on our economy.
> 
> Chips are made of silicon which is sand.
> Explain to me how we have a shortage of that ?
> 
> We buy SAND to level our lawns!!!! Theres enough sand for us to do that isnt there ?
> 
> And how come the US hasnt taken things into our own hands to produce chips while generating jobs.
> 
> Yup... look around, things not just IC's will get worse before it gets better.
> 
> US dollar is worth the least it has been in our liftime with the printing of 6 trillion in one year alone which is more than has ever been printed collectively since we went off the gold standard.
> 
> This is why things cost more, the dollar is worth lesss... buckle up.
> 
> By the time youre able to get your electric f150 it will cost 100k$ for the base model.


There is a real substrate shortage, not a shortage of silicon. IC manufacturers are relatively far downstream from substrate suppliers.

Silicon consumption has been growing by double digits Y/Y and many partners are simply at capacity.

TSMC (the second/third largest) foundry has been running a backlog for more than 16 months. Samsung and Intel are both pumping billions of dollars into increased foundry capacity: https://www.theverge.com/2021/3/23/22347250/intel-new-factories-arizona-20-billion-chips-outsourcing-foundry-services-manufacturing

This is my day to day. It's not all theatre. You can't just shut down fabrication lines to re-tool for higher yields. That takes years and all of these things have to be done in parallel.


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## Thejarrod

in case you were wondering. prices are still high. no pickup truck under the christmas tree for me this year. :lol:


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## Jeff_MI84

My Ranger lease is up in June. I was planning to upgrade to a nicer model, but will probably just purchase my current truck instead.

That being said, I don't have an "inside scoop" on the auto industry per se. However, yes the chip shortage will be going on for some time. There are so many storage lots around Metro Detroit, filled with vehicles awaiting chips.

Different plants have had extended periods of downtime this year. My plant has been running all out because the Bronco had already been delayed.

Microchips aren't the only thing in short supply. On a seemingly weekly basis, we have also run out of seats and as of a few days ago fuse boxes.


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## bosox_5

My car died this week. Need a new engine, so that's that. I am noticing a used Tacoma is the same price as a new Tacoma right now. That's unreal


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## Jeff_MI84

@bosox_5 that really sucks.


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## Drix

I got a used F150 a few years ago and thought I was paying an exorbitant price. A few years later that turned out to be a better buy than waiting.

Much like the two 5700xt graphics cards I bought at 380 dollars before the chip shortage also turned out to be a good buy.


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## hobbyaddict1

This is how long one has had to wait…

Placed order 7/14/2020

Picked up on 2/17/2022


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## hobbyaddict1

Removed the double posting.


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## ABC123

I bought a older 3500 work van, pickup prices are ridiculous.


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## hobbyaddict1

Prior to waiting for Bronco I bought a clean older Jeep Cherokee... I "paid up" for it because it was rust free original paint vehicle from out west. Today, it would not seem like a bad thing to do at all. Was planning on selling it once the new vehicle arrived but like it so much I may just end up keep it also. Nice to know that I could get my money back for it if I decided to sell.


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## Thejarrod

I have a friend at work who just cancelled an order on a new car. it was a very large SUV and she lost interest given current gas prices. with the overall economic uncertainty, I suspect that demand for cars will start to decline in a very significant way over the next month.


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## Phids

Thejarrod said:


> I have a friend at work who just cancelled an order on a new car. it was a very large SUV and she lost interest given current gas prices. with the overall economic uncertainty, I suspect that demand for cars will start to decline in a very significant way over the next month.


I I could understand if demand for gas guzzlers decreases, but unless there's a huge jump in public transportation or ride sharing, I think demand for cars could not go down significantly because of inelastic price demand. Some people may put off their purchases and instead invest in maintenance of current cars, but I imagine many people will just have to suck it up and budget more for cars. In other words, it will be part of a larger cost-of-living increase that we're seeing.


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## FATC1TY

Phids said:


> Thejarrod said:
> 
> 
> 
> I have a friend at work who just cancelled an order on a new car. it was a very large SUV and she lost interest given current gas prices. with the overall economic uncertainty, I suspect that demand for cars will start to decline in a very significant way over the next month.
> 
> 
> 
> I I could understand if demand for gas guzzlers decreases, but unless there's a huge jump in public transportation or ride sharing, I think demand for cars could not go down significantly because of inelastic price demand. Some people may put off their purchases and instead invest in maintenance of current cars, but I imagine many people will just have to suck it up and budget more for cars. In other words, it will be part of a larger cost-of-living increase that we're seeing.
Click to expand...

agree, if someone is balking at a car purchase due to gas/fuel costs, then they probably couldn't afford the purchase to begin with.


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## MasterMech

I would have to chuckle a bit if we see sedans regain some popularity amongst high fuel prices.


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## Thejarrod

MasterMech said:


> I would have to chuckle a bit if we see sedans regain some popularity amongst high fuel prices.


well, sedans are superior to SUV so that would make sense :lol:


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## A_Hobbes_B

Amoo316 said:


> Until the chip shortage settles itself down and new car lots aren't forced to overpay for used cars to have decent inventory on their lots, I'm afraid this trend looks to continue for a while.


I keep hearing this but in my area the only used car prices that lots were over paying for were like new (a few years old) and pickup trucks. I've been in the car market and have two to sell/trade and nobody wanted to pay squat for them.


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## A_Hobbes_B

As someone who is in the market for a (true) 4WD pickup truck/SUV, its absurd these prices


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## pennstater2005

Just saw a local commercial for a 2020 F250 for $75000.


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## Redtwin

That's about what they are going for down here as well. Hence, me continuing to drive "old faithful" into the ground.


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## FATC1TY

pennstater2005 said:


> Just saw a local commercial for a 2020 F250 for $75000.


Depending on trim level and miles, that's about par for the course.


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## Thejarrod

so its been another 4 months so i thought i would post the Car Guru used car price chart. ...not much has changed. BUT, it is interesting that pickup trucks are appreciating at a slower rate than other body styles.


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## MasterMech

Making wagon's cool again! Love my neighbors E91 BMW 328. Shame we didn't get diesel, or turbo engine options in NA.


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## Thejarrod

the two coolest types of cars are 1) wagons and 2) diesel. so yeah, 328 diesel would be nice!
i shopped extensively for a 5 series diesel a few years ago. its hard to find a nice one so i ended up going with the V8 instead. Its getting harder and harder to find performance diesels so i wish i would have been more patient back then.


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## Phids

I'm checking in here to see if anyone else has any plans for car purchases going forward. It pains me that prices have only gone up and seem to be stuck there. I'm now considering whether the new car market is a better option than the used car market....new car prices seem to be less than used ones.

https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/price-trends/


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## Amoo316

I just picked up a 90 Ranger beater truck for $800, and I have $245 in parts coming (starter and PS pump + hoses) to get it to a point where I can start tweaking things to make it reliable, but the engine and transmission (manual) are solid and the body/frame has surprisingly almost nothing but surface rust on it.

I'll probably have $1500 into it by the time I'm done tinkering unless something unexpected happens. The "sell everything" is actually working in my favor here, as I legit could put the PS Pump and Starter in and flip it for double what I have into it. That said, if you have some mechanical skill and like tinkering, basically anything anybody has that is or was a "project" seems to be available right now.

So as I said, if you like tinkering and can find something in a state you're comfortable handling, it's not a terrible time to be looking at used stuff. If you're looking for something that is turn key, there's no way I'd touch anything right now.


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## Baretta

Speaking of gas prices. Currently paying $8.77 a gallon for premium in Vancouver. So crocodile tears for ya'all. :roll:


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## Thejarrod

i would typically buy a car that is 2-3 years old, with 20-30k miles. By that point, the heavy depreciation years are winding down, but it still feels new to me. but now, i'm seeing cars in those ranges going for basically the same amount as new. In a few cases, i saw jeep gladiators with 10k miles listed for 5-7k more than the brand new.

so yeah, if you NEED a car or truck. either buy new, or buy VERY used like Amoo316 did. 
But my plan is to use what i have until either used prices come down or my subaru dies.


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## Redtwin

Thejarrod said:


> But my plan is to use what i have until either used prices come down or my subaru dies.


Same here. I'll be driving my 2003 F-150 until the tires fall off. It has almost 300K miles right now and still going strong.


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## MasterMech

My two youngest vehicles (Honda van, Chevy pickup) are near 10 years old now and with prices where they are, I think I'm going to go the distance with them. The BMW is going to need some pricey suspension goodies soon but such is life with an 11 year old BMW.


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## Amoo316

FWIW, last I saw a month ago, New Car Dealerships were marking up a lot of the new trucks over sticker. Especially the more fully loaded/upper tier models.

I know the car manufacturers themselves are kinda upset about it as they've expressed that multiple times, but until it becomes legal for us to buy direct, we're going to be stuck in this situation.

I know car dealerships are franchises, but other industries have figured out MAP pricing, I'm surprised the auto industry hasn't been able to. I know manufacturer are talking about changing quotas away from dealerships that are the worst offenders.


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## Thejarrod

Used car (pickup truck) prices have finally started to fall! check out this graph from Car Gurus.



OK, that is a totally misleading graph because its on price changes over a few days and the drop is only $20. :lol:

here is the true graph, starting at January 2020. in all honesty, it has been stable for a while now. and i think it will start to come down in the next several weeks. ...in the event i'm wrong, i'll delete this post.


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## FATC1TY

Thejarrod said:


> Used car (pickup truck) prices have finally started to fall! check out this graph from Car Gurus.
> 
> 
> 
> OK, that is a totally misleading graph because its on price changes over a few days and the drop is only $20. :lol:
> 
> here is the true graph, starting at January 2020. in all honesty, it has been stable for a while now. and i think it will start to come down in the next several weeks. ...in the event i'm wrong, i'll delete this post.


I think they'll come down but won't be at previous levels seen before the uptick, but I'm wondering if some of it has to be the fuel prices and interest rates as well. While fuel had gone down and hadn't stopped some certain purchases ( diesel ), I think it tempered the room a lot.


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## Thejarrod

another three months passed so lets update. Prices are actually falling now. Overall used cars down 3.7% in the last 90 days and probably going to continue to fall. 















How long should i wait to get a pickup truck? I'm thinking I'll wait until the prices fall to Jan '21 prices.


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## cavince79

Worth watching:


Used Vehicle Value Index


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