# Crazy lumber prices



## Phids (Sep 24, 2020)

As if there aren't enough crazy things going on in the world already, take a look at lumber. I have my Home Depot receipts emailed to me, so looking back at them, I see that on April 30 of last year, a 96" whitewood 2x4 cost $3.25. On November 23, it was up to $4.25. Today? A hefty $6.23 each.

What? I would hate to be building a new house these days as you are going to be paying quite the premium. I've been watching Youtuber channels which predict a housing crash within the next 12 months or so, so if this happens, I wonder if lumber prices will fall as well.


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## BobLovesGrass (Jun 13, 2020)

A lot of factors but the elephant in the room is inflation.
Everything has to go up at the rate the government has printed money, and the easiest way for them to ever pay it back is to devalue that debt via inflation..


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## corneliani (Apr 2, 2019)

My lumber packages have doubled in price. At least I can get most of what I need though. Windows are another story ... I'm at 3-4mo lead times, almost triple what has been normal! Do NOT make a mistake on a window order &#128514;


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## Mightyquinn (Jan 31, 2017)

Yeah, this hit me hard when I went to order lumber for my shed, I probably payed an extra $1,000 for the shed over what I was thinking it was going to cost.


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## Retromower (Jan 28, 2021)

Thats what you get when you have so many natural disasters in recent years that have created a construction boom. As someone who is a woodworker, its not fun but it is what it is.


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## Lust4Lawn (Aug 4, 2020)

It definitely narrows the gap on composite deck pricing. Some of the cheapest colors right now are nearly identical in cost to wood.


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## Thejarrod (Aug 5, 2018)

Knock knock
Who's there?
INFLATION :x


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## Sbcgenii (May 13, 2018)

I saw a guy merging on to the highway the other day with 6-8 2x4s in the back and said to myself he must be rich.


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## Ware (Jan 28, 2017)




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## bosox_5 (Jun 20, 2018)

Its not inflation. Inflation rates are pretty low right now. What you are seeing is classic supply and demand. There is less supply because lumber manufacturers had to shut down in the pandemic and then add more demand because everyone who was home this last year decided to spend their money on home improvement stuff. I finished my attic, my in-laws built a deck, etc etc.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/244983/projected-inflation-rate-in-the-united-states/

https://fortune.com/2021/03/20/lumber-prices-2021-chart-when-will-wood-shortage-end-price-of-lumber-go-down-home-sales-cost-update-march/


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## BHopper (May 28, 2019)

Friday April 1st purchased 28 2x6x8 for a desk/workbench build $263 dollar later.... insane but still cheaper than buying the premade BS...


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## zinger565 (Nov 28, 2017)

Yeah, @bosox_5 is right on this one. It's not just lumber prices that have soared, it's across a lot of industries.


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## Belgianbillie (Apr 3, 2018)

BobLovesGrass said:


> A lot of factors but the elephant in the room is inflation.
> Everything has to go up at the rate the government has printed money, and the easiest way for them to ever pay it back is to devalue that debt via inflation..


That's not in this case. Inflation is quite low still according to the FED. It is supply chain disruptions and increased demand (home building and improvement) due to COVID. I am an analyst covering Forestry machinery and its going to stay this way for a while.


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## corneliani (Apr 2, 2019)

Belgianbillie said:


> BobLovesGrass said:
> 
> 
> > A lot of factors but the elephant in the room is inflation.
> ...


Do you mind me asking what you see as the crux of the problem? All we get is that there are supply shortages ... is that from a production perspective or can it be fixed with legislation? Cant help but wonder if some of our tariff wars aren't partially to blame.


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## Belgianbillie (Apr 3, 2018)

corneliani said:


> Belgianbillie said:
> 
> 
> > BobLovesGrass said:
> ...


Employment issues related to covid in both the harvesting, processing and distributing of the lumber in sync with a higher than usual demand due to construction and home improvement. If i recall correctly, lumber trade issues with canada play into this also. The market will catch up.


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## MasterMech (Sep 24, 2017)

Belgianbillie said:


> corneliani said:
> 
> 
> > Belgianbillie said:
> ...


Say it louder for those of us in the back. :lol:

Many areas of the country are in a housing boom, seems to be an awful lot of migration to certain areas in the last few years. I don't see that changing immediately either. So, demand is way up and supply is struggling to keep up. March/April/May of 2020 it was hard to find a parking spot at HD/Lowes around here.

I have a close family member who works for a major lumber mill, COVID plays a big part for sure, absenteeism conflicts with the need to run the mill at capacity to capitalize on the elevated market. They are running every stick they can find right now too.


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## corneliani (Apr 2, 2019)

Belgianbillie said:


> corneliani said:
> 
> 
> > Belgianbillie said:
> ...


This is in line with what I was hearing/seeing as well. Employment issues should be easily rectifiable, at least this far into the pandemic. The harvesting side may be a long-term issue though and if so we'll be in for a hurtin' for a while. It's already impacting our material choices with non-wood products becoming more attractive. There may be some lost marketshare in the future if things don't swing back some in the renewable forestry industry, as I'm sure they're well aware. Commodity prices ebb & flow so that part is a given, but this is a bit much IMO.


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## DuncanMcDonuts (May 5, 2019)

Construction lumber has definitely soared. Softwoods and sheet goods... Fortunately, hardwood prices haven't risen as much.


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## daniel3507 (Jul 31, 2018)

@Belgianbillie is echoing what I've been hearing from sources I work with. I've heard that a lot of places expected a downturn with Covid-19 and reacted based off that prediction. Turns out the opposite happened and now everyone is trying to play catch up with covid complications mixed in. It may take a bit but it will level out. We decided to hold off on building/buying a new home until it does though.


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## Burnie (Jun 13, 2020)

Just found out another problem with this. Got my renewal for Homeowners Insurance, replacement coverage, it went from $3615 last year to $4980 this year, $1365 per year increase. I guarantee when the pricing goes down, they will not go down on my insurance cost. I got to get time to call my agent and see if there is a better company out there. Been with this company since 2012, paid $1745 back then, and it has been a steady increase every year.


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## iBird (Apr 21, 2021)

Well, inflation is one thing which is not in our control because it largely depends on regulation, government, economic factors etc.

However, to get best prices on costly things, we should have patience, should wait... in one or two years, the prices keep changing. It may be that you are able to grab at lower prices if you wait for sometime.


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## david_ (Aug 22, 2019)

https://youtu.be/TKdnSPZfI4k


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## corneliani (Apr 2, 2019)

david_ said:


>


👌


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## SJ Lawn (May 7, 2018)

Classic supply versus demand leading to high prices....

Kind of hard to believe rampant inflation is around the corner when:

Millions of people are out of work.
Millions of people are behind in rent and mortgage payments. These people have a huge hole to dig out of.....
Travel and entertainment industries have been decimated.
Globalization has kept costs down and will continue to do so..


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## Phids (Sep 24, 2020)

SJ Lawn said:


> Kind of hard to believe rampant inflation is around the corner when:
> 
> Millions of people are out of work.
> Millions of people are behind in rent and mortgage payments. These people have a huge hole to dig out of.....
> ...


Don't you think that new government spending in the _trillions _is pretty much a classic recipe for rampant inflation? You're right about the rent/mortgage payments, which could also turn into a disaster for many very soon. Last I heard, sometime around July is when forbearance ends, which will be bad. Up to this point, the government has been kicking the can down the road, but this can only last for so long.

In any case, things are not looking good on the horizon.


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## Sbcgenii (May 13, 2018)

SJ Lawn said:


> Classic supply versus demand leading to high prices....
> 
> Kind of hard to believe rampant inflation is around the corner when:
> 
> ...


Jpow make the printer go brrrr


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## OnTheFence (Apr 27, 2021)

Definitely experiencing unseen supply and demand issues nationwide. Many mills were shut down due to Covid restrictions right as people were accepting their fate of being stuck at home for the next few months. This created a swell in home improvement projects both indoor and outdoor. I work for a large PVC and Aluminum Fencing manufacturer and we have been experiencing shortages on the extrusions we use to build our PVC Fence systems since April of 2020.
Fast forward to this winter and the cold spell that swept Texas. Many of the chemical refineries that produce the PVC resin used in our products were forced to shut down in moments notice. It can take weeks or months for them to get back to full capacity. Have you seen the price of OSB lately? That is largely due to a shortage of the adhesives used to keep it together.... a lot of the raw materials used in making those adhesives come out of Texas.
Many box stores are predicting they will be completely sold out of composite decking come July. It sure has been a wild ride, and I don't think we're done quite yet.


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## corneliani (Apr 2, 2019)

I didn't think of the resins having an impact but I can totally see that impacting things. ZIP sheathing prices have completely left the stratosphere! Complete craziness.


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## deschenes20 (Jun 3, 2020)

2x6 8 feet
15$ can

here in canada quebec ..


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## Phids (Sep 24, 2020)

Phids said:


> I have my Home Depot receipts emailed to me, so looking back at them, I see that on April 30 of last year, a 96" whitewood 2x4 cost $3.25. On November 23, it was up to $4.25. Today? A hefty $6.23 each.


I checked on the price of these studs just now, and it's at $7.14 each. This is getting depressing. I have several woodworking projects at home that I have been hemming and hawing now that it feels like I'm working with precious resources.


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## Overtaxed (May 9, 2021)

I tell you what, I'm real happy, as a woodworker, that I have a few 1000 BF of lumber sitting in racks right now. I've bought it through the years when I see a good deal, and I'm sure I could sell it right now for 5-10X what I have in it. Walnut, white/red oak, and a few pallets of 7/8's plywood that I got a great deal on (28/sheet!). My wife wanted a table that we built a month or so ago, and I had everything I needed except some pine for the stretchers; I nearly died when I saw the price of a common board at Lowes. I got 2X stock instead and milled it down, but even that was ridiculous for pricing.

I've been toying for years with the idea of buying a sawmill, if this persists, it's going to push me over the edge. I have all the tools to move and cut the lumber at the house as well as the tools to go from rough cut to finished.. So it's not a big leap for me to say "nope, not paying that" and just mill it myself. Big thing I'm missing is a good way to dry the wood, I don't have a kiln nor do I know of one nearby that will let me rent space.


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## kevreh (Apr 3, 2018)

david_ said:


>


TLDR; Its the big lumber manufacturers making all the profit. 10:45 in that video tells the story. Despite their sales increasing 15% from 2019 to 2020, Weyerhauser's net income went from -$76 million to $797. Thats almost a billion $ change(!) There's a few other big manufacturers mentioned in the video. Price gauging?


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## Phids (Sep 24, 2020)

Overtaxed said:


> I tell you what, I'm real happy, as a woodworker, that I have a few 1000 BF of lumber sitting in racks right now. I've bought it through the years when I see a good deal, and I'm sure I could sell it right now for 5-10X what I have in it.


I'm a novice who just got into woodworking about a year ago, but I wish I would have stocked up a bit more. Price of a 2x4x96" is now at $7.48, which is about a 17% increase since I started this thread to complain about high lumber prices. :lol:



corneliani said:


> 👌


I watched the video and will now need to watch his follow up about when lumber prices will go down. I had never seen that guy's YT channel before, but it's interesting how his build videos might get under 1000 views, but his videos about the lumber industry get 100k+, or even 1 million+ views.


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## falconsfan (Mar 25, 2019)

Lumber futures are already headed down although still well above the 'norm' of a year ago.


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## Phids (Sep 24, 2020)

falconsfan said:


> Lumber futures are already headed down although still well above the 'norm' of a year ago.


First actual news that the lumber bubble is bursting. From the Wall Street Journal:

 Lumber Prices Are Falling Fast, Turning Hoarders Into Sellers 

When this will affect the average Joe, though, is another story.


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## Allan-00 (Aug 6, 2019)

Looks like prices are going down. *knocks on wood*

Time to plan my shed build


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## Phids (Sep 24, 2020)

Well on a positive note, today is the first day I have seen lumber prices at Home Depot actually start decreasing. The price of a 2x4 that I have been watching took its first step back, going from $7.48 each to $7.15 today. Still way higher than where they were at this time last year, but a good sign nonetheless.


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## Phids (Sep 24, 2020)

Well I checked today and the price of a 2x4 at Home Depot is now down to $4.48 each. Still above what it was last November, but I'll take these prices any day.

One thing I'm not sure about is how much plywood has gone down from prices from a few months ago. Anyone been keeping track of that? Prices right now for a 4x8' sheet of 1/2" plywood is going for around $50. Is this still high?


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## crazyrunner33 (Jul 12, 2021)

1/2" 4x8 sanded ply for 50 is high, but remember, the stores typically adjust the prices when they restock. My father bought 1/2" 1 side sanded ply yesterday for 28 dollars up in Michigan. I'm seeing sanded ply down to 45 dollars for 23/32 here in the Carolinas, and 1/2 is still 45. 7/16 OSB dropped from 45 to 32. 2x4 studs are just under 5, and I can get pressure treated 2x4s for 3.50(right where that should be).

The reason for the plywood being so high compared to other materials is likely due to the additional strain caused by the resin shortage. A lot of resin comes from Texas, most of the resin plants were offline for weeks, some for months.

Some investors are predicting a rally in wood prices again due to the infrastructure bill. But I don't think that'll be the case, most infrastructure builds only use wood for the forms.


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## FATC1TY (Jul 12, 2017)

crazyrunner33 said:


> 1/2" 4x8 sanded ply for 50 is high, but remember, the stores typically adjust the prices when they restock. My father bought 1/2" 1 side sanded ply yesterday for 28 dollars up in Michigan. I'm seeing sanded ply down to 45 dollars for 23/32 here in the Carolinas, and 1/2 is still 45. 7/16 OSB dropped from 45 to 32. 2x4 studs are just under 5, and I can get pressure treated 2x4s for 3.50(right where that should be).
> 
> The reason for the plywood being so high compared to other materials is likely due to the additional strain caused by the resin shortage. A lot of resin comes from Texas, most of the resin plants were offline for weeks, some for months.
> 
> Some investors are predicting a rally in wood prices again due to the infrastructure bill. But I don't think that'll be the case, most infrastructure builds only use wood for the forms.


Not necessarily the resin as a whole, but the bonding portion uses an isocyanate that's used in other industries like foam and furniture. There's a massive demand for that, along with shortages, that's had a serious backlog, and it wasn't just domestic.

It's clearing up a bit, so hopefully prices get better even quicker.


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## Amoo316 (Jul 8, 2021)

Phids said:


> One thing I'm not sure about is how much plywood has gone down from prices from a few months ago. Anyone been keeping track of that? Prices right now for a 4x8' sheet of 1/2" plywood is going for around $50. Is this still high?


4x8x1/2" was over $80 sheet in my local Lowes less than 2 months ago. I haven't checked recently. I need ply to finish my shop, but I'm not buying anything until it's back into the $35 range at minimum.


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