2021 College Football Season

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Re: 2021 College Football Season

Post by Ware »

If you told me Arkansas v. Bama was going to be a one score game in the 4th I would have laughed.

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Re: 2021 College Football Season

Post by GoDawgs »

For sure. Great game for the hogs, especially on the road.

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Re: 2021 College Football Season

Post by FATC1TY »

That was a great game, so so close. I hope that’s the Bama that shows up in Atlanta.

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Re: 2021 College Football Season

Post by GoDawgs »

Haha we can only hope. My bet is bama will show up ready to play their best game of the year. I just hope the Dawgs do the same. It’s going to be fun.

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Re: 2021 College Football Season

Post by Amoo316 »

I actually liked the matchup for Arky. I talked my neighbor up from 10 to 14 points to win our weekly beer bet. The hogs don't play the defense needed to beat Bama, but their running game is strong enough to expose the holes in that defense that we did.

Well I knew this season was going to be bad for Florida, but I did NOT expect to be sitting here in November searching for a new HC. Heck, I thought Mullen was safe even after our last lost. As soon as Missu converted that OT 2pt Conversion, I knew I had just watched Mullen coach his last game.

My Phone calls if I were Scott Stricklen would come in this order:

Bob Stoops - Gotta check.

Lane Kiffin - Yes I know, I know. Is there any better HBC clone then Kiffin? Offense, check. Recruiting, check. Ability to piss off every other coach/fan you play, check. Visor, check.

Mike Stoops - I upped him for PSU and I think he'd be fine for us as well.

Billy Napier - This to me would be our floor. If we get past the first 3 with solid a "no" you're going to have to take a gamble to get the right guy.

Dave Aranda - This would be my "worst case scenario guy". I think he's a better fit out west with his background. He did spend 3 years at LSU, but I don't like the history of a Defensive minded HC at Florida.

My No list:
Fickell - I wouldn't even call him for this job. Defensive guy, strong, deep ties to the midwest. Great coach, not right for this job.

Franklin - I don't see Mullen to Franklin as an upgrade. Franklin is the better recruiter, Mullen is the better play caller. The move would be a wash IMO.

Matt Campbell - Another Midwest guy, his teams have under-performed in big games. I think he's a good coach, just not right for Florida.

Tom Herman - He got a raw deal at Texas, and I think what we're seeing this year from them shows just how talented he is/was. I think he deserves another shot at a big program, I just don't see Florida being the place to give it to him.

Joe Brady - This one is interesting as he's a Florida guy. That said, I watched Mullen struggle with Game management when he first went to MSU and made the switch from OC to HC and I think Brady needs time in the big chair before getting a job like UF. Of everybody but Kiffin on this list, Brady probably has the most upside IMO, I just don't think things would happen fast enough for him to last long enough to show what he's got.

Jeff Lebby - See Joe Brady. That said, I think he's the perfect person to take over for Kiffin if we poach him.

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Re: 2021 College Football Season

Post by Drix »

Now that my Ducks flopped, I am really curious as to what the spread is gonna be between Cincy and Georgia. Also who is gonna get a spot when Alabama gets knocked out.

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Re: 2021 College Football Season

Post by GoDawgs »

If that game where to happen, assuming/ hoping my dawgs can win the next 2, I’ll guess the line between UGA and cincy will be around 17.5. I wouldn’t touch it though.

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Re: 2021 College Football Season

Post by GoDawgs »

@Amoo316 good luck on the search for a new coach. The thought of having lane Kiffin as my coach would make me sick.

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Re: 2021 College Football Season

Post by Amoo316 »

@GoDawgs Thanks, and yeah I kind of agree, but the thought of having Spurrier as a coach would have made a lot of schools feel the same way. Only thing Spurrier definitely has over Kiffin is loyalty. I'd always be worried that he was looking for what's next. Ala, back to the NFL.

I fully expect Mullen to be Urban's play caller in Jacksonville next year.

Also, most people forget, this largely same Dawgs squad (with your better QB healthy) played this largely same Cincy squad last year in a bowl in what I thought at the time was a matchup of two of the hottest teams in the country. I agree Vegas would probably set the odds pretty high, but also wouldn't touch anything over 1 score, and I'm not even sure I'd touch 7. I still don't think Bennett ends this season as the guy and you guys holding the trophy.

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Re: 2021 College Football Season

Post by Amoo316 »

The structure of the Mel Tucker at MSU is weird. It's $95Mil fully guaranteed, but the buyout starts at $2.5Mil and decreases $500K/yr. What I am unsure of is if MSU fires him in say 2025 if it's still on the hook the $9M+/yr plus the minimal buyout. He got a nice pay jump, but I'm not sure the numbers in place prevent him from being poached at any point. It's just strange.

Franklin's contract doesn't seem to include the guarantee language that Tucker's does and basically amounts to a 2 year extension with his buyout hitting $2M in 2024 and $1M in 2025.

I'm not surprised PSU held on to Franklin with who's out there, I think it was a good move, though I'm sure most PSU fans will disagree right now. The Tucker contract is still the wtf to me. If you're willing to pay the guy $9M a year, set the buyout at a place that any major program would at least think twice about. If he were a contender this year for UF, USC or LSU, none of those schools would balk at a $2.5M buyout. The one saving grace is I don't think any of those schools are ready to make him the 2nd/3rd highest paid coach in CFB just yet. Give him 2 more years of success and a B1G title mixed in, and suddenly you need to rework this again....it's just a wtf contract IMO.

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Re: 2021 College Football Season

Post by pennstater2005 »

We'll get more of the same with Franklin. Every year strong recruiting class and then same results. Penn State fans want to beat Ohio State occasionally (Franklin is 1-7), and Michigan and Michigan State a little more regularly. He is 3-5 and 3-4 against those teams. Nothing will change. I understand the who else is out there rhetoric but there are coaches besides Franklin that can lose to those teams consistently and be paid less. Seems like a good guy but he is a poor in game coach.
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Re: 2021 College Football Season

Post by Amoo316 »

pennstater2005 wrote:
Thu Nov 25, 2021 2:21 pm
We'll get more of the same with Franklin. Every year strong recruiting class and then same results. Penn State fans want to beat Ohio State occasionally (Franklin is 1-7), and Michigan and Michigan State a little more regularly. He is 3-5 and 3-4 against those teams. Nothing will change. I understand the who else is out there rhetoric but there are coaches besides Franklin that can lose to those teams consistently and be paid less. Seems like a good guy but he is a poor in game coach.
So like Auburn thinking they should be able to beat Bama once in a while or NC State thinking they should be able to beat Clemson every once in a while?

The rich have only gotten richer in the Playoff/initial transfer portal "era" we've been in. Kirby Smart has been at UGA for 6 years (current) and is 63-14 and hasn't finished with less than 2 losses in a season yet. He has yet to beat Bama. Should UGA fire him if they get outschemed/coached/prepped/Tua Comes off the bench in the second half...etc in the SEC Title game then again in the playoff and UGA again finishes with 2 losses?

UGA is probably the second best job in the SEC right this minute. It's going to take a year of UGA having a historic defense and Bama being down from their "regular" form for UGA to have a shot this year. All those stars had to align.

Point is, Bama, Clemson, and OSU are so far and away ahead of everybody else right now it's not even funny. Good news is we're entering a new "era" of CFB. We'll just call it the "NIL/Transfer Portal/Expanded Playoff Era", but Mel Tucker isn't able to do what he did at MSU this year as little as 3 years ago (I think that was the transfer rule change). Clemson has more depth 3 years ago to plug their holes quicker then they did this season.

The biggest problem PSU has right now is the same thing everybody in the ACC, SEC and B1G have been dealing with for a decade. Historically dominant runs by 3 teams from 3 different conferences that have centralized much of the top talent into the richest of the rich". Everybody else get to give those three team 1 shot every 4 years of maybe upsetting them, but most the times EVERYBODY has fallen short.

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Re: 2021 College Football Season

Post by Getting Fat »

Amoo316 wrote:
Thu Nov 25, 2021 9:06 pm
pennstater2005 wrote:
Thu Nov 25, 2021 2:21 pm
We'll get more of the same with Franklin. Every year strong recruiting class and then same results. Penn State fans want to beat Ohio State occasionally (Franklin is 1-7), and Michigan and Michigan State a little more regularly. He is 3-5 and 3-4 against those teams. Nothing will change. I understand the who else is out there rhetoric but there are coaches besides Franklin that can lose to those teams consistently and be paid less. Seems like a good guy but he is a poor in game coach.
So like Auburn thinking they should be able to beat Bama once in a while or NC State thinking they should be able to beat Clemson every once in a while?

The rich have only gotten richer in the Playoff/initial transfer portal "era" we've been in. Kirby Smart has been at UGA for 6 years (current) and is 63-14 and hasn't finished with less than 2 losses in a season yet. He has yet to beat Bama. Should UGA fire him if they get outschemed/coached/prepped/Tua Comes off the bench in the second half...etc in the SEC Title game then again in the playoff and UGA again finishes with 2 losses?

UGA is probably the second best job in the SEC right this minute. It's going to take a year of UGA having a historic defense and Bama being down from their "regular" form for UGA to have a shot this year. All those stars had to align.

Point is, Bama, Clemson, and OSU are so far and away ahead of everybody else right now it's not even funny. Good news is we're entering a new "era" of CFB. We'll just call it the "NIL/Transfer Portal/Expanded Playoff Era", but Mel Tucker isn't able to do what he did at MSU this year as little as 3 years ago (I think that was the transfer rule change). Clemson has more depth 3 years ago to plug their holes quicker then they did this season.

The biggest problem PSU has right now is the same thing everybody in the ACC, SEC and B1G have been dealing with for a decade. Historically dominant runs by 3 teams from 3 different conferences that have centralized much of the top talent into the richest of the rich". Everybody else get to give those three team 1 shot every 4 years of maybe upsetting them, but most the times EVERYBODY has fallen short.
good post

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Re: 2021 College Football Season

Post by Spammage »

Final four should be Georgia, Ohio State, Cincinnati and Oklahoma State as long as those 4 win out.

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Re: 2021 College Football Season

Post by pennstater2005 »

@Amoo316

Those are good points and ones I’ve heard before. However, at what point do you decide a coach isn’t the guy? Possibly isn’t a good in-game coach. 8 years seems to me enough to analyze a guy but maybe not.
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Re: 2021 College Football Season

Post by bosox_5 »

Spammage wrote:
Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:13 am
Final four should be Georgia, Ohio State, Cincinnati and Oklahoma State as long as those 4 win out.
Curious why OK State over Notre Dame. Both have small wins over bad teams early in the year, and ND has a much better loss. I can see if they don't want another ND/Cincy game, but that would only happen in the final and there is no way that happens

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Re: 2021 College Football Season

Post by Amoo316 »

bosox_5 wrote:
Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:48 am
Spammage wrote:
Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:13 am
Final four should be Georgia, Ohio State, Cincinnati and Oklahoma State as long as those 4 win out.
Curious why OK State over Notre Dame. Both have small wins over bad teams early in the year, and ND has a much better loss. I can see if they don't want another ND/Cincy game, but that would only happen in the final and there is no way that happens
Honestly, because a 1 loss OKST with wins over OU (Not great but a good win) and Baylor (not great but good) are better than anything ND has on their schedule with the exception of Wisconsin. Either way is Wisconsin favored against either of those team? Maybe OU, but probably not Baylor. The upper half of the Big12 is just better this year then ND traditional and the ACC games they got stuck with.

Not arguing that your loss is better, but their wins are better, IMO if things run chalk from here forward. I think OKST would jump Cincy for 3 which leaves Cincy 4 and ND 5.

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Re: 2021 College Football Season

Post by Amoo316 »

@pennstater2005 I think I see it differently for the simple fact Penn State didn't even get their full scholarships back until 2016 for 2017, class, so I asterisk 14, 15 and 16. 20 is a complete wash IMO, look no further then Michigan to see why. You guys has just as many kids sit out as they did.

So from my chair as a non-die hard PSU fan I look at 17 kinda, but first year full of scholarships is tough. That leaves 18, 19 and 21. So 4 seasons so far, that I think he can be fairly judged against his competition. If you want to make the argument 16-20 gives him 4 years of no restrictions to get players in, I can see that case, though not as strong IMO. 2018 you were trending back up, 2019 you trended up again (dropped your typical mid season wtf game, then played OSU tough), 20 is a wash, 21 has been a step back from the progress made in 19, but again I attribute much of that to 20. You guys could/should also just as easily be 7-4 or 10-1 with how close your losses are.

I just don't think it's been as black and white as 67-32, 1 B1G title with O'Brien's kids and losing records vs all your rivals.

To directly answer you question of how long, I feel after next year is long enough to have a full picture of what he is capable of. You guys go 12-1 with a close loss to OSU, and again I feel that's probably your expected ceiling right now. Drop 1 to Indiana or some garbage, close loss to MSU or UM again and lose to OSU, and I'm with you next year. I just don't feel it's been black and white to this point.

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Re: 2021 College Football Season

Post by pennstater2005 »

@Amoo316 All good points. And the close losses particularly to Ohio State hit hardest. I remember the 3 score lead only to lose in the fourth quarter.

You're being level headed and I'm being an emotional fan. I don't like this.
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Re: 2021 College Football Season

Post by Amoo316 »

LOL @pennstater2005 this is very similar to the exact same conversation I've had with a bunch of my UM fans last year. I felt Harbaugh deserved this year with a legit his style guy in McNamarra coming back to see if he could ever get over the hurdle. Turns out he was.

The problem for you guys when OSU and UM are good is you guys are battling MSU for 3rd fiddle in your division. Good luck vs MSU today. An ugly loss would really make me rethink a lot of what I have said about Franklin. You can't get passed by MSU by a large margin.

Keep in mind I was on the "don't fire Mullen yet" bandwagon until I knew it was inevitable after the Missouri game. I'm a fan of giving coaches 1.5 full recruiting cycles at these big programs as long as they're not bottoming out hard, but a lot fans don't have that kind of patience.

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